Boris Johnson has admitted that a Brexit trade deal is “looking very, very difficult at the moment”.
Speaking to Sky News at a hospital where the first Covid vaccines are currently being administered, Mr Johnson issued the warning that an agreement may not be made. “We’ll do our level best, but I would just like to say to everybody – be in good cheer, there are great options ahead for our country on any view,” he said.
It comes after No 10 confirmed yesterday that the prime minister would be heading to Brussels in the “coming days” in a final bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit, as talks remain deadlocked. The move was announced following a 90-minute phone call between Mr Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, suggesting hopes of a deal were fading fast.
No date was announced for the meeting, but an EU summit begins on Thursday – and an agenda of outstanding differences must be drawn up first – suggesting Wednesday is the most likely day. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator – who was described as “very downbeat, very gloomy” by the Irish government – had told MEPs on Monday that the negotiations would not carry on beyond Wednesday.
At the same hospital site, Boris Johnson again insisted the UK will “prosper mightily” with or without a trade deal with the European Union.
This is despite suggestions by the Office for Budget Responsibility that a no-deal situation could wipe 2 per cent off gross domestic product in 2021.
In a clear warning to Brussels, the PM told reporters: “Our friends have just got to understand the UK has left the EU in order to be able to exercise democratic control over the way we do things.
“There is also the issue of fisheries where we are a long way apart still.
“But hope springs eternal, I will do my best to sort it out if we can.”
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 09:55
Trade talks ‘very difficult at the moment’, PM admits
Boris Johnson has admitted that the end of the Brexit negotaions – and indeed the chances of a deal being made – are “looking very, very difficult at the moment”.
While talking to reporters at a London hospital where the first batch of coronavirus vaccines are being rolled out, he said: “You’ve got to be optimistic, you’ve got to believe there’s the power of sweet reason to get this thing over the line.
“But I’ve got to tell you it’s looking very, very difficult at the moment.
“We’ll do our level best, but I would just like to say to everybody – be in good cheer, there are great options ahead for our country on any view.
“But the key thing is, on 1 January, whatever happens there’s going to be change and people need to get ready for that change.”
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 09:41
When is the deal deadline? EU officials give their verdict
The Independent’s Adam Forrest has collated responses from EU officials – and Downing Street – about when a deal must be reached by:
Now that the negotiating teams have run out of road, how long do political leaders have to get an 11th hour compromise deal? Michel Barnier told EU ambassadors that Wednesday was the deadline for a deal, ahead of Thursday’s EU Council summit. But No 10 would only say a deal had to be reached “this week”.
Dutch foreign minister Stef Blok has raised the prospect high-level talks could run until after Christmas. “I think we should all, including myself, be available to conclude talks, including sometime between Christmas and New Year’s Eve if it has to be and if that leads to a good agreement,” said Mr Blok.
One German official told the respected Brexit analyst Mujtaba Rahman that when it comes to deadlines, “Europe is a flexible instrument”.
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 09:01
MPs vote to reinsert ‘law-breaking’ clauses to controversial bill
Incase you missed it last night: Boris Johnson told EU officials he would consider removing “international law-breaking” clauses from the Internal Market Bill, only to be overruled by colleagues when they voted to reinsert the very same clauses back into the document on Monday night.
The move has left critics baffled, and clearly signals that divisions within the party are starting to show as the PM tries frantically reach an agreement with the European bloc.
My colleague, Andy Gregory, has more on last night’s events:
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 08:40
The ‘fishing rights’ issue: explained
Fishing is an industry responsible for 12,000 jobs on around 6,000 vessels in the UK, prompting supporters of Leave to say Brexit should mean Britain gets it country – and its fish – back.
The British position is that, as an independent coastal state, the UK should be able to prioritise its own boats.
However, the UK exported 333,000tns of fish to members of the EU in 2019 with a value of £1.34bn, according to figures from the Marine Management Organisation (MMO), and continued access to the markets is key for the industry.
Here’s a succinct Q&A, by the Associated Press, to fully explain why fishing has led to so much Brexit chaos:
What is the history of the issue?
The UK government’s allowing of other countries to fish in its waters predates its entry into the European Union. The London Fisheries Convention, signed in 1964, allowed vessels from France, Belgium, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands to fish inside the UK’s 12 nautical mile territorial zone up to six miles from the coast, and for British fleets to fish to the same distance off the coastlines of other signatories.
Britain withdrew from the convention in 2017, which was largely superseded by the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) which the UK will also leave on 31 December at the end of the Brexit transition period.
What is the situation now?
According to the EU, the CFP “gives all European fishing fleets equal access to EU waters and fishing grounds and allows fishermen to compete fairly”. In practice, this means all EU countries can fish within 12 nautical miles of the UK coast and vice versa.
Criticism of the equal access agreement usually focuses on the argument that the UK has a relatively large fishing zone compared to many EU members and, as a result, EU fishermen benefit more from access to UK waters than the other way around.
An October report from the MMO said between 2012 and 2016, EU-27 vessels landed an estimated average of 706,000 tonnes of fish from UK waters with a value of £493m per year, representing 27 per cent of their total by weight. In comparison, UK vessels landed 94,000 tonnes from EU-27 waters, equating to just 14 per cent of its total haul.
However, chip shop staples of cod and haddock are largely imported from EU-27 states, at 106,000 tonnes and 51,000 tonnes in 2019 respectively, and the UK is a net exporter of mackerel and herring, selling 62,000 tonnes and 35,000 tonnes to the EU last year.
What is the situation with quotas?
The CFP sets quotas of how many of each fish species can be caught in a certain area to ensure the industry is sustainable. Each country is annually given a quota based on the total available for each species, with each country’s limit based on historical fishing patterns of each country which, it is argued, are unfavourable to the UK.
The UK will, either with or without a deal, become an independent coastal state in the new year. Without an agreement, it will have control of a 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as conferred by the United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Sea.
In its February Future Relationship with the EU document, the UK government said “future fishing opportunities should be based on the principle of zonal attachment”, as is the case with the EU’s agreement with Norway. There, the EU and Norwegian governments jointly agree quotas to manage stocks and an exchange of fishing rights.
How could the impasse be overcome?
Reports suggest UK negotiators are proposing removing pelagic fish – the likes of mackerel and whiting – from the fisheries aspect of the negotiations in a bid to break the deadlock.
How has politics played a part?
Fishing, although a small fraction of national industry, is key to many of the places where it takes place.
France’s Emmanuel Macron has warned his country will veto any Brexit deal, suggesting anxiety over what Michel Barnier is preparing to give up in his determination to secure an agreement. Mr Macron has maintained a hard line on fishing, with his country set to go to the polls in 2022. Regions including Brittany and Normandy – key fishing areas – are likely to be vital in the race for the presidency.
Similarly, on the UK side, an independent fisheries policy is seen as part of “taking back control”, with then fisheries minister George Eustice saying in January: “For many people in coastal communities, leaving the Common Fisheries Policy is at the heart of getting Brexit done.”
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 08:20
Johnson to head to Brussels in final attempt to avoid no deal
Boris Johnson will dash to Brussels in a final bid to avoid a hugely damaging no-deal Brexit, as the talks remain deadlocked.
In a dramatic intervention, the prime minister and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, will stage face-to-face talks in what is almost certainly the last-chance saloon.
No date was announced for the meeting, but an EU summit begins on Thursday – and an agenda of outstanding differences must be drawn up first – suggesting Wednesday is the most likely day, reports Rob Merrick:
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 07:58
Good morning, and welcome to The Independent’s rolling coverage of the Brexit negotiations.
Sam Hancock8 December 2020 07:53