Starmer would ‘probably’ be PM if election held tomorrow, says polling guru

Keir Starmer would “probably” become prime minister if an election were held tomorrow, according to polling guru Peter Kellner.

The former YouGov president has analysed the latest survey data – and forecast a swing of 70 seats to Labour. Such a result would put the Tories on 295 seats and Labour on 272, leaving Boris Johnson well short of a majority

“They [the Conservatives] would remain the largest party in parliament, but with too few MPs to stay in office,” Kellner wrote for The European. “Keir Starmer would probably become prime minister.”

Government must address ‘injustice’ of excluded self-employed, say MPs

A group of MPs and campaigners have delivered a 350,000-strong petition to the Treasury today – on behalf of the three million people who have been excluded from extended financial support during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The petition calling for small limited company directors to also be eligible for the government support of 80 per cent of earnings, and will be delivered alongside other petitions including one to support people who started jobs after February 2020.

Caroline Lucas MP, who is co-chair of the ExcludedUK APPG said: “Unsurprisingly, the [self-employed] feel completely abandoned as they’ve been left with nothing. 

“The fact that more than 200 MPs joined the Excluded parliamentary group shows the depth of feeling among MPs who represent areas across the country. There is a deep injustice to this, and the government has to address it.”

Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert.com, said the cracks in support had become “fissures”.

‘No opportunity’ for more support schemes, says Sunak

Rishi Sunak has been answering MPs questions at the Treasury committee hearing – and said there is “no opportunity to introduce new schemes” to support the UK’s workforce right now. 

Tory MP and committee chair Mel Stride asked about the plight of the self-employed, many of whom have been excluded from jobs support schemes because of “administrative complexity”. 

Sunak apologised that he could not do more but said there is “no opportunity to introduce new schemes” now.

Sunak dons face covering for Pret trip

Rishi Sunak has shared a photo of himself in Pret wearing a mask – a not-so-sly dig at his cabinet colleague Michael Gove?

Gove was spotted in a branch of Pret without a face covering earlier this week, despite insisting it was “basic good manners” to wear one.

Test and trace: ‘As good or better’ than any system in the world?

Downing Street was unable to provide any evidence to back up Boris Johnson’s claim that the test and trace service is “as good as or better than” any other system in the world.

When pressed, the PM’s official spokesman instead said: “We’ve talked in recent weeks about the number of people who test and trace have been identifying.

“As of last Thursday, it had reached more than 144,000 close contacts of people who tested positive for coronavirus who might have otherwise unknowingly have spread the virus.”

No date for ‘independent inquiry’ promised by PM

Downing Street was unable to give any further details about the nature of the independent inquiry into the handling of the coronavirus crisis committed to by Boris Johnson in the Commons during PMQs.

Pressed on whether it will be judge-led, when it will begin or whether it will be under the 2005 Inquiries Act, a No 10 spokesman said: “It’s an independent inquiry. I haven’t got any more detail for you on how it would work. We will set that out in due course.”

PM accused of lacking compassion after making ‘Calvin Klein briefs’ joke

Boris Johnson has come in for a bit of flak over his remark about “Calvin Klein briefs” when questioned in the Commons.

The joke came in response to a question about bereaved relatives during the coronavirus crisis. “I think it tells you everything you need to know about the prime minister’s flippant approach to this crisis and his style of leadership,” the Labour leader’s spokesman said later.

“That’s hardly the response of the party of compassionate Conservatism.”

Two-third of public unaffected by economic crisis in past month

64 per cent of people told YouGov the coronavirus crisis has had no impact on their household finances in the last month. But only 40 per cent don’t expect any damage to their finances in the year ahead.

Tax rises would endanger recovery, says Labour

Raising taxes would be “dangerous” and make it harder for the economy to recover from the pandemic, Labour’s shadow chancellor has said.

Anneliese Dodds on Wednesday warned that Labour’s support would not be guaranteed if the government went ahead with a rise in capital gains tax, warning against “last-minute decisions around tax … without proper planning”.

Laying out Labour’s preferred economic strategy for the pandemic she told a seminar that the government should prioritise a return to growth, and that tax rises would be counterproductive reducing demand.

The Treasury announced this week that it would be reviewing capital gains tax, with some suggestions that the wealthy could be asked to pay more. 

Our policy correspondent Jon Stone has more details:

‘Biggest mug yet seen’?

Our chief political commentator John Rentoul has never seen a bigger mug in a select committee hearing than the one used by Priti Patel today.

‘EU should be clear in standing by Britain’, says leading German politician

A leading German politician has back the UK’s decision to ban Huawei from its 5G network. Norbert Röttgen, a former minister under Angela Merkel and the current chair of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee – said the EU “should be clear in standing by” Britain.

PM accused of neutering intelligence committee with in-built majority

Boris Johnson has given himself an in-built majority on the committee that oversees the intelligence services, prompting fresh accusations that it is being neutered.

The furore over the likely selection of the accident-prone Chris Grayling as its chair has been fuelled by a decision to strip out its one independent member.

It means the nine-strong intelligence and security committee (ISC) will now have five Conservative MPs – allowing them to outvote the remaining four Opposition members.

Dominic Grieve, its former Tory chairman, told The Independent: “The committee has always been independent. If that is now being departed from for partisan reasons, that’s very regrettable.”

Our deputy political editor Rob Merrick has more:

UK government has ‘hostile agenda’ claims Blackford

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford said the UK government has a “hostile agenda” against devolution.

During PMQs, he said: “Westminster’s plan to impose an unelected, unaccountable body to rule on decisions made by the Scottish parliament will not be accepted.

“The decisions of the Scottish parliament must and will be decided by the Scottish people.”

Responding, Boris Johnson said: “On the contrary, what we are doing is possibly the biggest single act of devolution to Scotland, to Wales, to Northern Ireland, in modern memory and he should be celebrating the 70 powers or more than are going to be transferred to the elected people in Scotland.”

Starmer has ‘more briefs than Calvin Klein’, says PM

Johnson later claimed Sir Keir Starmer has “more briefs than Calvin Klein” after the Labour leader warned the PM is “kidding no-one” by claiming everything is a “stunning success” in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Starmer said during PMQs: “It’s perfectly possible to support track and trace and point out the problems, and standing up every week and saying it’s a ‘stunning success’ is kidding no-one – that’s not giving people confidence in the system.

“They’d like a prime minister who stands up and says ‘there are problems and this is what I’m going to do about them’. Not this rhetoric about ‘stunning success’ when it’s obviously not true.”

He pressed Mr Johnson for a message to bereaved families of Covid-19 victims, to which the PM replied: “We will do absolutely everything in our power to prevent a second spike in this epidemic.”

Johnson defended the government’s response, adding: “One day he says it’s safe to go back to schools, the next day he’s taking the line of unions … one day they say they accept the result of the Brexit referendum, the next day, today, they’ll tell their troops to do the exact opposite.

“He needs to make up his mind about which brief he’s going to take today because at the moment he’s got more briefs than Calvin Klein.”

Starmer tells PM to punish BA for rehiring 30,000 staff on worse pay 

Keir Starmer has called for British Airways to be stripped of valuable landing slots unless it pulls plans to axe 42,000 staff and rehire 30,000 on worse pay and conditions.

The Labour leader called for Johnson to act, telling him: “The prime minister should call it out.”

Starmer demands worst-case scenario Covid report recommendations implemented

Keir Starmer pressed the PM over whether the recommendations of the government’s advisory group will be implemented in full. He said: “That report assessed the reasonable worst-case scenario for this autumn and winter including a second Covid spike and seasonal flu and it set out strong recommended actions to mitigate the risks.

“The report was clear July and August must be a period of intense preparation, i.e. now. Can the prime minister make clear he intends to implement the recommended actions in this report in full and at speed?”

Boris Johnson responded: “Not only are we getting on with implementing the preparations for a potential new spike, but he will know that the government is engaged in record investments in the NHS.”

PM: Government doing ‘huge amount’ for aviation

Boris Johnson said the government is doing “a huge amount” to support the aviation sector.

He said: “One of the companies he (Sir Keir) mentions, Virgin, has now come out of the Birch process after extremely difficult, but in the end, productive conversations.”

Keir Starmer said: “The problem with the prime minister’s dismissal of this is that since the Chancellor set down last week around 10,000 people have lost their jobs. The prime minister should focus on them not the rhetoric.

He said: “Will the prime minister now personally intervene and make clear that actions like those at BA cannot be allowed to stand without consequences for landing slots?”

Johnson said: “Let’s be absolutely clear, British Airways and many other companies are in severe difficulties at the moment and we cannot, I’m afraid, simply with a magic wand ensure that every single job that was being done before the crisis is retained after the crisis.”

Starmer accuses Johnson of ‘rhetorical nonsense’

As PMQs gets under way, Keir Starmer has called on the government to offer more targeted help for the economy – asking Boris Johnson why he didn’t bring forward “sector specific” to protect jobs.

The prime minister said his government was “helping” people through the crisis and said the Labour leader had to work out whether he was for or against the government’s schemes.

Starmer called it “rhetorical nonsense” – before the PM said there was no “magic wand” to save other job.

‘It’s not only disappointing, it’s disheartening’

China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming has had more to say on the Huawei decision – and the new security law in Hong Kong.

|“Those who see China as systematic rival or as a potentially hostile state have got it all wrong – they have chosen the wrong target and they are heading in the wrong direction,” he told the Centre for European Reform.

He has said trust between the two nations has been “seriously damaged” by the ban on the Chinese tech firm in Britain’s 5G network. “I think it firstly undermines the trust between the two countries. It’s not only disappointing, it’s disheartening.”

He praised the “good company” for having invested £2bn in the UK, creating 28,000 jobs and having contributed “greatly” to the telecoms industry.

But he said the UK had acted to “simply dump” Huawei. “The way you treat Huawei will be followed very closely by other Chinese businesses,” he said. “I think the trust is seriously damaged between the government-level and among the businesses.”

The ambassador also said some European politicians had made “irresponsible” comments on the law. “Stop interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs,” he said.