The Long March 5B rocket, which carried a Chinese space station module, has dropped into low Earth orbit and now risks crashing back down.
The rocket successfully launched the Tianhe module last week, which will become the living quarters of the future Chinese Space Station (CSS). Unfortunately, the 30-metre long rocket also reached orbit, and is now one of the largest ever launches to make an uncontrolled re-entry.
It is uncommon for rockets to reach the velocity necessary to reach orbit, but it is currently travelling around the world once every 90 minutes, or seven kilometres every second. It passes by just north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing, and as far south as Chile and New Zealand.
There are fears that the rocket could land on an inhabited area; the last time a Long March rocket was launched in May 2020, debris was reported falling on villages in the Ivory Coast. The speed of the rocket means scientists still do not yet know when it will fall, but it is likely to do so before 10 May 2021.
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Telescope image shows rocket as it tumbles over Earth
In this image, provided by the same EU team as below, you can see the rocket as it streaks across the sky.
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Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 20:14
EU trackers provide final estimate
The European Union’s Space Surveillance and Tracking team have provided their last update, and their final estimate of time.
The rocket is expected to arrive at around 2.30 UTC, they say, give or take about two and a half hours.
(As ever, that window is far too large to predict where it will land with any kind of accuracy, but its announcement also gives some possibilities.)
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 20:11
Where might the object fall?
Here’s a nice visualisation of where the data from the US Space Force suggests the re-entry could happen. The red bits are the key ones – and as you can see, they’re mostly over oceans, thankfully, though Australia in particular is covered by some.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 20:03
Jonathan McDowell is one of the true heroes of the re-entry of Long March 5B – cataloguing it, informing the world, and taking part in a host of interviews to let people know just how worried they should be. (Not very.) Here he is, preparing for the arrival and wearing a very fitting shirt:
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 19:54
Key tracking website goes down ahead of re-entry
The Aerospace Corporation, one of the key organisations tracking the satellite and projecting its re-entry, has seen its website go down, presumably because of the huge interest. Here’s its latest forecast, in the meantime.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 19:49
New rocket should be less damaging than older ones
China has drawn a lot of criticism for letting this rocket come down uncontrolled. But as Scott Manley points out here, it could be worse – indeed it has been, with previous versions of the same rocket.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 18:22
US government tracker still slightly earlier
The US government tracker – which can be found at Space-Track.org – is still showing the possible re-entry as slightly earlier.
It has a re-entry time at 2.27am UTC on Sunday morning, with a window of three hours either side.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 17:15
Rocket re-entry still expected early Sunday
The latest predictions from the Aerospace Corporation are here.
They’ve not changed much; the window has just shifted back by eight minutes.
That means everything is still expected to happen early on Sunday; some time between 11.30am UTC and 7.30am UTC.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 17:12
Latest possible impact locations suggest China is safe
The refining of the possible impact time also means that the location can be refined too. Not by much, since the rocket is moving so fast, but by enough to rule out an impact with China:
McDowell also notes that NYC and Elon Musk are out of the impact zone, too. “I apologise to everyone who was hoping for a more dramatic SNL tonight than usual,” he jokes.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 15:45
The new Aerospace Corporation estimate is out – and puts the potential arrival somewhere between 11.22pm UTC on Saturday, and 7.22am UTC on Sunday.
Andrew Griffin8 May 2021 15:28
