The plan to lift all Covid restrictions next month has been plunged into doubt, after a surge in cases and hospital admissions prompted Boris Johnson to warn it “may need to wait”.
Infections and admissions have leapt by 20 per cent week on week, with the Indian variant now dominant and accounting for up to 75 per cent of the new cases, it was revealed.
Dr Jenny Harries, head of the new UK Health Security Agency, described the picture as “quite worrying” and agreed the fourth and final step on the roadmap “hangs in the balance”.
The prime minister, visiting a hospital, argued there was nothing “currently in the data” to suggest the key 21 June date would have to be abandoned, but admitted: “We may need to wait.”
The health secretary also said it is “too early to say” whether the next stage of the roadmap out of lockdown will go ahead as planned on 21 June amid the spread of a variant of Covid first detected in India.
It comes after Ravi Gupta, an expert in clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, warned the prevalence of the Indian variant in the UK posed a “major risk” to other European countries, rather than “the other way around”.
Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn continue to be the hotspots for the Indian variant, but seven other areas of England now have more than 100 confirmed cases.
Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the Sage advisory committee, said full reopening on 21 June should not go ahead: “No. At the moment it looks a little bit risky.”
And Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said it was “in the balance”, arguing: “The data collected in the next two to three weeks will be critical.”
Mr Johnson appeared to agree, saying: “What we need to understand is to what extent the vaccine programme is starting to make a real difference in interrupting the link between infection and hospitalisation and serious illness and death.”
The latest official statistics showed:
* Covid infections are rising by 20.5 per cent week on week – with 3,542 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours.
* Hospital admissions have seen a similar rise of 19.9 per cent – with 826 admissions over the last 7 days.
* The Indian variant is now dominant – accounting for up to 75 per cent of new cases, Mr Hancock said.
* Cases of the variant have doubled within a week – to 6,959 cases up to 26 May, a rise of 3,535 on the previous week’s figures.
* Covid deaths are up 14 per cent week on week – reversing the recent trend of falling, although the total for the past week is still relatively low at 57.
Asked about the fate of the roadmap at a Downing Street press conference, Dr Harries said: “I absolutely agree with Professor Neil Ferguson.
“If you just look at the pure data which is out today, it looks quite worrying. We had 3,535 cases of the 617.2 [Indian variant] last week, and we have just about double that, 6,959, now.”
However, she pointed out the government was now actively looking for cases, adding: “We also expected some cases to rise as we gradually start to socialise.”
The prime minister acknowledged there are “signs of an increase in cases”, particularly of the B1617.2 Indian variant of concern.
But he said: “Don’t forget the important point about the intervals between the steps of the road map. We put that five weeks between those steps to give us time to see what effect the unlockings are having.”
